Nate Silver is wrong on Florida. Romney by 15?

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com: "The macroscopic solution, of course, is to take an average of the polls, as the FiveThirtyEight forecast does. That forecast now projects a 15-point win for Mr. Romney:"

'via Blog this'

I think the primary is still in play. I think Romney has soft support. Porous in fact. Newt will get dedicated sup0port fortified by Palin's urging that the contest remain open. The more time Newt has the less more rope to suspend his opponent with. Outguessing Nate is fun, I admit, but it has the same general thrust in this content as it did during the Obama-Clinton contests. Chris Matthews is making my case as I speak. It is Romney who is playing dirty. What Chris does not believe is that Romney can be beaten. That's a belief I do not share.

Charles Sanders Peirce - Thinking in Threes