9/9/12

My 2012 Obama Predictor Page with other Contests Prognosticated 10/05/2012

This is my first update of this page
Despite the debate brouhaha Obama's edge has increased
in part because of commanding positions in swing states
including Ohio and Florids 
+
As in 2008 when I correctly predicted an Obama victory prior to Iowa
I am bravely risking humiliation and trying once again
to do the very same thing
My methodology is my business
It is conservative
It is draconian
It has a basis in calculation but 
its mathematical veracity 
would be incomprehensible to most mathematicians
and is certainly beyond my capacity to explain
save as an intuitive method based on
figures available to anyone
Today I shall continue with a single figure applying only to the
margin by which Obama will lead come Election Day
That margin would be 6 points - higher than my first prognostication
As things change I will raise or lower the above margin
Over time I will add in key Congress and Senate contests
when my method proves workable
Obama will lead Romney by at least six points on election day
Note that this does not factor in voter suppression
nor the possible effect of last minute Swift Boat ads by the criminal GOP
For each of these disgusting eventualities I will concede
two points
As of now that would give the President a two point winning margin
I expect the margin to increase between now and the election
and will comment on any unforseen events that change my abductions
SENATE AND CONGRESS RACES
Massachusetts Senate Warren 
Despite Brown's apparent lead now, I believe the expected Obama edge is
large enough to carry Warren to victory November 6
I will add in other races as time permits
 
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