1/31/12

That's right Nate and I still say it will be closer than predicted

Florida Republican Primary Results - Live Results - Election 2012 - NYTimes.com: "Nate Silver
Romney Unlikely to Win 50 Percent of Vote
With 41 percent of precincts reporting in Florida so far, Mitt Romney has 50 percent of the vote. Although all signs point toward an impressive victory for him tonight, he is unlikely to wind up with an outright majority of the vote.

There are two simple reasons for this. First, polls still have not closed in the Florida Panhandle - which should be one of Newt Gingrich's best regions. Second, the votes that have been counted so far contain a heavy proportion of early and absentee ballots, which are likely to favor Mr. Romney more than the votes cast today. It is more likely that Mr. Romney will wind up somewhere in the mid-40s than at 50 percent or higher."

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