Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com: "But the gap between the Electoral College and the popular vote has pretty much dissipated. Mr. Obama was given a 67 percent chance of winning the Electoral College in Tuesday’s model — almost exactly the same odds as in the popular vote forecast.
Perhaps a more important qualification is that many of these polls were conducted shortly after Mr. Romney named Representative Paul D. Ryan as his running mate. Candidates typically get a temporary bounce in the polls after naming their vice-presidential nominee, but it usually dissipates soon and their polling may be slightly inflated in the interim. This is not something that our model adjusts for.
Even so, I don’t think we should totally write off the idea that Mr. Romney has made up some ground in the swing states. Apart from his selection of Mr. Ryan, there are other things going on in the campaign. For example, Mr. Romney’s advertising advantage in swing states could be starting to pay dividends."
'via Blog this'
As a contributor to the Obama effort
I have felt critical about the daily flood
of warnings I get from Dems up and down the line to
contribute, contribute, contribute
And rather than follow all the polls
I have relied on Nate Silver to give me at least
a rough indication of where the race is day by day
A few days ago I noted a stumble in the Obama rise
and I simply told myself to wait
Now Nate has come forth with the sentence
that is the headline of this article
Mr. Romney’s advertising advantage in swing states
could be starting to pay dividends.
My first reaction is anger
Money could buy this election and
kill our democracy
I want to look Romney in the eye and see
if there is a trace of humility there
I think I would find his demonic confidence
in money to achieve what he cannot
Money is the only reason he is where he is
So how do we conquer that
I see two ways
First I think that the Democrats should stop competing with Romney
Instead they should have campaigns related to specific objectives
Like winning the swing states
Contribute ten bucks to meet our Ohio goal
Our Pa goal
I would love to see Plouffe wrap his mind around this
and do the math needed to move from daily alarmist near-spam
to a thought out comprehensive strategy
I always felt Plouffe should have headed the DCCC
I am toast as far as influence goes I guess
The second way to beat Romney in the swing states
where it looks like he might beat us
is to stop complaining about what we do not know
and tell what we know about the
money that is being spent against us
Say it is Koch and Adelson and Rove and Singer
Tie these donors to evils just as onerous as Bain evils
Quite frankly if we do not attend to
something like what I am suggesting
I will not feel very sanguine in making further donations
I want to feel my party knows what it is doing
and that it has an integral approach
I know it does but it is not being shared
and it needs refining
